Weekly Recap: Oil Crashes, Stocks Rally, CPI Shocks
A week defined by an Iran ceasefire, a 16% oil crash, a 7-day S&P rally, a Q4 GDP downward revision, and a hot March CPI print at 3.3% y/y.
The week of April 6 to April 10, 2026 delivered one of the sharpest reversals traders have seen this year. Oil collapsed 16% in a single session, the S&P 500 strung together its longest winning streak since October, and Friday’s CPI print reminded everyone that the inflation fight is not over.
What set the tone on Monday?
Markets opened the week on edge. WTI crude traded above $115 per barrel, the S&P 500 was down roughly 4.3% year to date, and the VIX closed near 23.87. Every desk was watching the clock tick toward President Trump’s 8 PM ET Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Positioning was defensive. Energy complexes were bid, equity volatility was elevated, and curve flatteners were crowded. The Street expected the worst and was paying up to hedge it.
How did the Iran ceasefire come together?
Tuesday began with Russia and China vetoing a UN Security Council resolution on the Strait of Hormuz. That move removed any diplomatic off-ramp heading into the Trump deadline, and risk assets drifted lower into the afternoon.
Then, less than two hours before the 8 PM cutoff, Pakistan Prime Minister Sharif brokered a last-minute ceasefire deal. Trump announced a two-week suspension of planned strikes, contingent on Iran reopening the Strait. We broke the full sequence of the standoff in this week’s Iran ceasefire and oil crash analysis and the preceding UN veto and Trump deadline recap.
Why did oil crash 16% in one day?
The Wednesday open was violent. WTI crude plunged 16.3% to $94.55 per barrel, its worst single-day drop since April 2020. Brent fell 13.8% to $94.13. The geopolitical premium that had been building for weeks was wiped out in a few hours.
Equities ripped higher alongside the oil crash. The S&P 500 gained 2.58%, the Nasdaq jumped 3.50%, and the Dow added 2.97%. Short covering, risk-parity rebalancing, and a sudden relief in implied vol all contributed to the move.
What did Delta Air Lines tell us about demand?
Delta reported first-quarter results Wednesday morning and beat on the top and bottom lines. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.64 versus consensus of $0.58 to $0.61, up 44% year over year. Adjusted revenue hit a record $14.2 billion, up 9.4% year over year. Full details are in the company’s March quarter release.
The catch was guidance. Delta forecast second-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.00 to $1.50, well short of the Street’s $1.70 estimate. Shares still finished up 6.83%, as investors focused on the Q1 beat and the drop in jet fuel prices that followed the oil crash. Our Delta Q1 earnings breakdown walks through the full picture.
The other notable Wednesday data point came from rates markets. CME FedWatch odds of a December rate cut jumped from 14% to 43% as traders extrapolated lower oil into lower CPI prints down the road.
Did the GDP revision change the story?
Thursday brought a quieter but consequential print. The BEA released its third estimate of Q4 2025 GDP at 0.5% annualized, revised down 0.2 percentage points from the second estimate of 0.7%. The revision was driven by a downward adjustment to private inventory investment, specifically wholesale trade.
Full-year 2025 GDP landed at 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024. That is a meaningful deceleration. The S&P 500 still managed to rise for its seventh straight session, the longest advance since October, as the rate-cut narrative overshadowed the growth slowdown. We unpacked the revision in our Q4 GDP third estimate brief.
How hot was the March CPI print?
Friday delivered the week’s real shock. At 8:30 AM ET, the BLS March CPI report hit the tape with headline inflation up 0.9% month over month, the largest monthly jump since June 2022. On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI ran at 3.3%, the highest reading since May 2024 and up sharply from 2.4% in February. IndexBox’s summary captures the acceleration cleanly.
Core CPI was firmer too, printing 0.3% month over month and 2.7% year over year, up from 0.2% and 2.5%. Energy did most of the heavy lifting, rising 10.6% month over month. Gasoline topped $4 per gallon at the pump for the first time in more than three years. Our full March CPI breakdown separates the signal from the noise.
What is the Fed going to do?
The CPI print reset rate expectations in real time. By Friday’s close, CME FedWatch had 98.4% priced for the Fed to hold at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting. The fed funds target range remained at 3.50% to 3.75%.
The irony of the week is hard to miss. Wednesday’s oil crash pulled December cut odds from 14% to 43%. Friday’s CPI then locked in a near-certain April hold. The market spent five days pricing in two very different Fed paths.
This week in numbers
| Metric | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (Wed) | -16.3% to $94.55 | Worst day since April 2020 |
| Brent crude (Wed) | -13.8% to $94.13 | Geopolitical premium unwound |
| S&P 500 (Wed) | +2.58% | 7-session streak into Thursday |
| Nasdaq (Wed) | +3.50% | Biggest gainer of the three |
| Dow (Wed) | +2.97% | Broad participation |
| Delta Air Lines (Wed) | +6.83% | EPS beat, weak Q2 guide |
| Q4 2025 GDP (Thu) | 0.5% annualized | Revised down from 0.7% |
| Full-year 2025 GDP | 2.2% | Down from 2.8% in 2024 |
| Headline CPI (Fri) | +0.9% m/m, 3.3% y/y | Hottest since June 2022 / May 2024 |
| Core CPI (Fri) | +0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y | Firmed from prior month |
| Energy CPI | +10.6% m/m | Gas above $4/gal |
| December rate cut odds | 14% to 43% | Wednesday oil crash repricing |
| April FOMC hold odds | 98.4% | Post-CPI lockdown |
What are we watching next week?
Three things matter heading into next week. First, whether the Iran ceasefire holds as the two-week clock runs down. Second, whether the oil unwind keeps bleeding into inflation expectations or reverses on any headline risk. Third, how Fed speakers frame the March CPI print ahead of the April 28-29 meeting blackout.
The bigger picture is that the week delivered a textbook volatility compression and expansion cycle. Geopolitical tail risk priced in, then out, then inflation reminded everyone the domestic story is still live. For disciplined allocators, weeks like this are less about catching the moves and more about surviving them without breaking process.
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