Two Weeks After the April FOMC: What the Statement Said, What the Data Showed
The April 29 hold split the Committee 8-4. Two weeks of data later, the majority's caution looks vindicated and June futures are pricing 97.7% no-change.
The April 28-29 FOMC closed with a hold and the loudest dissent in a generation. Three data releases and a handful of speeches later, the picture fits the majority’s framing - and the bond market has clearly noticed.
What did the FOMC actually decide on April 29?
The Committee held the federal funds target at 3.5%-3.75%. The statement leaned on familiar language: activity “expanding at a solid pace,” job gains “low, on average,” and inflation still “elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.”
The knobs were unchanged in the implementation note: IOER at 3.65%, ON RRP at 3.50%, primary credit rate at 3.75%. No change in the rate or the plumbing.
Why did four members dissent - and why does the split matter?
The 8-4 vote is the most divided FOMC outcome since October 6, 1992, per CNBC’s recap. The split matters more than the count.
Governor Stephen Miran dissented dovishly, preferring a 25 basis point cut. Cleveland’s Hammack, Minneapolis’s Kashkari, and Dallas’s Logan backed the hold but opposed any easing bias in the language. One wanted to go lower; three wanted the statement to sound less inclined to ever do so.
In our view, the Committee is no longer debating whether to move next - it is debating which direction. Our day-of readout of the historic dissent covered the personalities.
What has the data shown in the two weeks since?
Three releases, each fitting the majority’s framing more than the dovish dissent’s.
| Release | Date | Headline | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| April payrolls | May 8 | +115K vs ~55K consensus; U-3 4.3% | Cooler, not breaking |
| April CPI | May 12 | +0.6% m/m, +3.8% y/y headline | Highest annual print since May 2023 |
| April retail sales | May 14 | +0.5% m/m, +4.9% y/y | Third straight monthly gain |
April’s Employment Situation printed well above the roughly 55,000 consensus, with U-3 at 4.3% and hourly earnings up 0.2%. The kind of soft the statement already described as “low, on average.”
April CPI was more pointed. Headline rose 0.6% m/m and 3.8% y/y, the highest annual print since May 2023. Energy climbed 3.8% on the month and drove over 40% of the headline; gasoline is up 28.4% y/y. Core ran cooler at 0.4% m/m and 2.8% y/y; real average hourly earnings fell 0.5%.
Today’s advance retail sales close the loop. Retail and food services hit $757.1 billion in April, up 0.5% m/m and 4.9% above April 2025 - partly reflecting the same energy pass-through.
How are bond markets and futures repricing?
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed into the 4.46%-4.49% range through the second week of May, its highest since mid-2025, stepping up on the meeting day and again on CPI. CME FedWatch now implies roughly a 97.7% probability the Committee leaves rates unchanged on June 17, up from near 70% in late April. The 2026 cut traders were carrying has been priced out.
This is market pricing, not our forecast - FedWatch can swing on a single CPI or jobs report. Our coverage of the divided yields and Iran oil shock on meeting day flagged the front edge of this move.
What have Fed officials said since the meeting?
The post-meeting communications calendar has been light but pointed.
New York Fed President John Williams, in remarks at the Cynosure Group Spring Symposium on May 4, repeated that “the current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to balance the risks.” His base case has inflation near 3% this year before drifting back to 2% in 2027; he declined to guide on the rate path.
On May 8, Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman both spoke at the Hoover Institution. Waller’s prepared remarks focused on Federal Reserve operations, not the rate path, and neither speech delivered a tell on June. The Committee appears content to let the May tape do the talking. Our Fed pause-to-cut historical playbook covers what has typically followed extended holds.
What is on the calendar into June 16-17?
Four dates matter between now and the next decision.
- May 20 (approx.): Minutes from the April 28-29 meeting - first read on the case each camp made.
- June 5: May Employment Situation from the BLS - the first Friday release lands eleven days before the FOMC.
- Week of June 9: May CPI, the last major inflation print before the meeting.
- June 16-17: FOMC decision and SEP - the first meeting under confirmed Chair Kevin Warsh per current reporting.
In our view, the question is whether May CPI cools enough to give the dovish camp something to point to, or whether the energy story rolls on. The hawkish dissenters need only one more firm inflation print to harden their case; the doves need a soft one to keep their cut idea alive. The interesting question is not the next meeting - the market has answered that - but how the May tape and the April minutes shape the September debate. Our day-of meeting preview laid out the framework we are still using.
Forward-looking statements reflect Ferrante Capital’s current analysis of available data and are subject to change without notice. Actual outcomes may differ materially from any expectations expressed or implied in this article.
Ferrante Capital LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser. Information in this article is educational and is not investment, legal, or tax advice, and is not an offer to buy or sell any security. Please consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
Ferrante Capital and its principals do not hold positions in any specific securities discussed in this article as of the publication date.
