Russia and China Veto UN Hormuz Resolution as Trump's 8 PM Deadline Looms

Russia and China vetoed a watered-down UN Security Council resolution aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, April 7, just hours before President Trump’s 8:00 p.m. Eastern deadline for Iran to reopen the waterway. The vote was 11 in favor, 2 against, with 2 abstentions. WTI crude pushed above $115 per barrel. The S&P 500 fell 0.9% on the session. And Trump warned that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if no deal materializes. This is where things stand heading into a critical evening.

What Did the UN Vote Actually Say?

Bahrain introduced the resolution, which had been repeatedly diluted in an effort to avoid a veto. The original text invoked Chapter Seven of the UN Charter, which authorizes the use of force. The final version dropped that language entirely. Instead, it “strongly encourages” member states to “coordinate efforts, defensive in nature, commensurate to the circumstances,” to ensure freedom of navigation through the Strait.

Even that softer language was not enough. Russia and China, both permanent veto-holding members, voted against the measure. The 11 votes in favor included the United States, the United Kingdom, and France.

The practical effect is that there is no multilateral framework for reopening the Strait. Any action before or after tonight’s deadline rests on unilateral decisions by the United States, Israel, or Iran.

What Is the Market Pricing Right Now?

The S&P 500 fell 0.9% on Tuesday after opening modestly higher on fading ceasefire hopes. The Dow shed 382 points, dropping 0.8%, while the Nasdaq fell 1.3%.

Monday’s session had been cautiously optimistic. The S&P 500 added 0.44% to close at 6,611.83, and the Dow climbed 165 points. That bid evaporated Tuesday morning as traders recalibrated around the likelihood that the 8:00 p.m. deadline passes without a deal.

WTI crude traded as high as $117.57 intraday before settling near $115.17. Brent crude sat near $113.40. The elevated levels reflect the ongoing Strait closure and the growing probability of further strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.

The VIX opened at 23.87 and drifted higher through the session. That is elevated but not panicked. It suggests the market is bracing for volatility, not pricing in a worst-case outcome.

What Else Moved Markets Today?

Not everything was geopolitics. Intel shares jumped roughly 3% after announcing a partnership with Elon Musk’s Terafab project. Terafab is a joint effort between Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI to build two advanced semiconductor factories in Austin, Texas. One facility would produce chips for cars and humanoid robots. The other would power AI data centers, including in space.

Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan said the company would help “refactor silicon fab technology” to accelerate the project’s goal of producing one terawatt per year of compute. Intel posted a photo of Tan and Musk shaking hands from a weekend meeting at Intel’s campus.

Separately, UBS upgraded Morgan Stanley to a “buy” rating with a $196 price target, implying roughly 18% upside from the prior close. Only 10 of 25 analysts covering the stock currently carry a buy rating, making the call a contrarian position.

What Happens After 8 PM Tonight?

That is the question the entire market is trying to answer. Trump has said the deadline is “final” and warned that the U.S. will target Iran’s power plants and bridges if the Strait is not reopened. Iran’s IRGC has said it will respond outside the region and deprive the U.S. and its allies of oil and gas “for many years” if civilian infrastructure is hit.

There are three broad scenarios:

Scenario 1: A deal or extension. If the two sides agree to some version of Iran’s 10-point proposal or Trump extends the deadline, oil would likely sell off sharply and equities would rally. This is the bullish case.

Scenario 2: Targeted strikes on military or energy infrastructure. This is what the market appears to be pricing as most likely. Oil moves higher, equities dip, but the damage is contained if strikes stay narrowly focused. Volatility rises but does not spike to crisis levels.

Scenario 3: Broader escalation against civilian infrastructure. This is the tail risk. If strikes hit power plants and bridges as threatened, expect a spike in oil toward $125 or higher, a sharp equity sell-off, and a VIX move toward 30 or above. Iran’s threat to retaliate outside the region could further compound the shock.

What Is the Rest of the Week’s Calendar?

The economic data schedule is heavy even without the geopolitics.

Wednesday, April 8 brings earnings from Delta Air Lines, Constellation Brands, and Applied Digital. Delta’s report matters because jet fuel costs are elevated, and the airline’s margin commentary will reflect real-time energy prices.

Thursday, April 9 is the BEA’s third estimate of Q4 2025 GDP. The second estimate came in at just 0.7% annualized, revised down from 1.4% in the advance reading.

Friday, April 10 is the big one: March CPI. February showed 0.3% monthly and 2.4% annual. Market consensus for March has shifted toward 3.2% to 3.4% year over year as energy prices feed through to consumer prices. A hot number would further reduce the odds of any 2026 rate cut.

For a detailed preview of this week’s calendar, see our market preview published Monday. For background on the March jobs report or the broader oil price trajectory, see our recent coverage of oil surging past $109.

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