Week Ahead: Five Charts for April 20, 2026
The S&P 500 hit a record 7,126 on a Hormuz ceasefire. Now the ceasefire expires Wednesday, Tesla and Alphabet report the same night, and oil is the swing factor.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,126.06 on Thursday, up 84.78 points after Iran’s foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” and oil cratered more than 10% in a single session. The intraday high of 7,147.52 was an all-time record. The index is up approximately 4% year to date and has rallied more than 9.4% from its March 18 low near 6,532.
But record highs built on geopolitical ceasefires are fragile. The two-week ceasefire expires Wednesday, April 22. Tesla reports earnings Wednesday night. And 120 or more S&P 500 companies face their Q1 tests this week. In our view, this is the most consequential week of the quarter. Five charts tell the story.
Chart 1: The S&P 500’s War-and-Ceasefire Rally
The year started at 6,858.47 on January 2. The Iran conflict that began February 28 drove the index to its 2026 low near 6,532 by March 18, a drawdown of roughly 5%. The first ceasefire on April 7 sparked a rally. Talks collapsed April 12 and the blockade resumed. Then Thursday’s Hormuz opening sent the index to a record. Trump said Thursday night the war “should be ending pretty soon.”
| Date | Event | S&P 500 Level |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2 | 2026 open | 6,858.47 |
| Feb 28 | Iran conflict begins | ~6,800 |
| Mar 18 | 2026 low | ~6,532 |
| Apr 7 | First ceasefire | ~6,750 |
| Apr 12 | Talks collapse, blockade | ~6,900 |
| Apr 17 | Hormuz open, record | 7,126.06 |
The pattern is clear: this market has been trading geopolitics, not fundamentals. The question is whether fundamentals will now take the wheel.
Chart 2: Oil’s $67-to-$104-to-$84 Round Trip
WTI crude fell nearly 12% to $83.85 per barrel on Thursday. Brent dropped 9% to $90.38. That is the largest single-day decline since the April 7 ceasefire.
The round trip has been extraordinary. WTI sat at $67 on February 27, pre-war. The Hormuz blockade pushed it above $104 by April 12. Thursday’s opening of the strait brought it back to $84. This 50-day stretch has been the most volatile for crude since 2020.
The binary risk: the ceasefire expires Wednesday, April 22. If the U.S. and Iran extend for another two weeks, oil drifts lower. Consumer spending benefits. Inflation pressures ease. If talks fail, $100-plus oil returns within hours. We believe Wednesday is the single most important day this week, and it has nothing to do with earnings.
Chart 3: Q1 Earnings Scorecard
Approximately 10% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 2026 earnings as of April 17. The early results are strong.
| Metric | Q1 2026 (blended) | 5-Year Average |
|---|---|---|
| EPS growth (YoY) | Double-digit (6th straight quarter) | ~8% |
| Revenue growth | 9.9% | ~7% |
| Revenue beat rate | 84% | 70% |
Sector leaders: Information Technology, Materials, Financials, and Utilities are reporting or projected to report year-over-year earnings growth. Energy and Health Care are reporting declines. Among banks, Goldman Sachs posted record equities trading revenue of $5.33 billion. JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley all reported this past week. Financials are one of Q1’s standout sectors. The early evidence supports the record, but the heavier tests arrive this week.
Chart 4: The Earnings Gauntlet
Tesla reports Wednesday after the close and Alphabet follows the next week on April 29. That makes Wednesday the marquee event. Add Boeing on Wednesday, and this week tests three different narratives: electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and industrial recovery.
Tesla (TSLA), Wednesday April 22, after close. Consensus estimates: EPS $0.37 to $0.43, revenue $21.5 to $22.8 billion. Q1 deliveries missed at 358,000 versus 370,000 expected. Production of roughly 408,000 created a 50,000-unit inventory build. The key question is Terafab capex commentary, which was excluded from the $20 billion or more 2026 capex guidance.
Alphabet (GOOGL), April 29, after close. Consensus: revenue approximately $107 billion (up 19% year over year), EPS roughly $2.76. Cloud revenue is expected to surge on Gemini AI momentum. Google Cloud Next runs April 22 to 24. The 2025 capex guide of $75 billion for data centers and Ironwood AI chips already set a record, and any increase in 2026 guidance is the number to watch.
Boeing (BA), Wednesday April 23, before open. Q1 deliveries hit 143 commercial aircraft, up from 130 in Q1 2025. 787 deliveries reached 15 at rate-8, targeting rate-10 later this year. Full-year guidance calls for positive free cash flow of $1 to $3 billion.
Other reports this week: AT&T and Verizon (Wednesday), ServiceNow (Wednesday), American Airlines (Wednesday), Snap (Wednesday), Procter & Gamble (Thursday), Intel (Thursday).
And the real concentration test comes the following week: AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META, and BKNG report, representing 43% of the S&P 500 by weight. This week is the warm-up.
Chart 5: The Economic Calendar
Three data points fill in the macro backdrop this week:
| Day | Release | Prior Reading | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday Apr 21 | Pending Home Sales (March) | Existing homes: 3.98M SAAR, down 3.6% | Housing weakness persists. Lowest existing home sales in 9 months. |
| Wednesday Apr 23 | S&P Global Flash PMI (April) | Manufacturing: 52.3 | First read on April activity. Captures post-ceasefire sentiment. |
| Thursday Apr 24 | Durable Goods Orders (March) | Delayed from original date | Business investment gauge. Postponed from March 25. |
| Thursday Apr 24 | Initial Jobless Claims | Stable trend | Labor market is the economy’s backstop through the oil shock. |
Housing is weak. Manufacturing is expanding. The labor market has held. In our view, the real question is whether the consumer follows the market higher or stays cautious. Flash PMI on Wednesday will be the first post-ceasefire sentiment signal.
The Week’s Single Question
Five charts. One question: does the record hold?
Wednesday is the binary event. The ceasefire either extends or it does not. Tesla and Alphabet either validate the rally or they do not. And the economic data will tell us whether the broader economy deserves a market sitting at all-time highs.
We believe the ceasefire extension is the higher-probability outcome (Trump’s “ending soon” language signals negotiations are advancing), but markets priced at records leave no margin for error. A failed extension combined with a Tesla earnings miss is the scenario that could erase the entire April rally.
Related reading:
- The Hormuz Blockade and Your Portfolio
- Bank Earnings Week: What the Numbers Tell Us
- Week Ahead: Five Charts
- Goldman Sachs Q1: Record Trading, Quiet Outlook
Ferrante Capital LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
FC and its principals may hold positions in BA, GOOG, TSLA. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Forward-looking statements reflect Ferrante Capital’s current analysis and involve assumptions and estimates. Actual results may differ materially. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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