The Week Ahead in Five Charts: Oil Back Above $100, Sentiment at Record Lows, and Banks Printing Money
Oil above $100 after the Hormuz blockade. Sentiment at a record 47.6. Goldman blowout. Five charts frame the week of April 14.
The Islamabad peace talks collapsed Saturday afternoon. Hours later, President Trump announced a full U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil futures ripped higher in overnight trading, and the ceasefire optimism that powered last week’s 3.6% S&P 500 rally evaporated before markets even opened.
That sets the table for the week of April 14. Five charts tell the story of where we are and what to watch.
1. Oil Prices: From $67 to $104 in 44 Days
WTI crude surged roughly 8% over the weekend, pushing toward $104 per barrel after the blockade announcement, while Brent crude rose 6.95% to $101.82. The ceasefire on April 8 had briefly pulled prices back below the $100 psychological line. That relief lasted four days.
| Date | Event | WTI Price (approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 27 | Pre-war baseline | $67/bbl |
| Feb 28 | U.S.-Israel strikes begin | ~$72/bbl |
| Mar 4 | Iran closes Strait of Hormuz | ~$85/bbl |
| Mar 27 | Brent peaks near $112.57 | ~$108/bbl |
| Apr 8 | Ceasefire announced | ~$91/bbl |
| Apr 12 | Talks collapse, blockade announced | ~$104/bbl |
So what: The move from $67 to $104 represents a roughly 55% gain in 44 days. Heading into Monday, the question is whether $100 acts as a floor or a ceiling. The situation remains fluid, and the historical record of oil shocks offers useful context. If the blockade holds, energy costs will continue feeding directly into consumer prices.
2. Inflation: The Oil-to-CPI-to-Expectations Chain
This is not just an energy story. It is an inflation story. The March CPI printed 3.3% headline, up from 2.4% in February. Energy costs surged 10.9% in the month, with gasoline up 21.2%, accounting for nearly three quarters of the headline increase. Core CPI came in at 2.6% year over year.
Consumers noticed. The University of Michigan’s 1-year inflation expectations jumped a full percentage point to 4.8% in April, up from 3.8% in March. That is the largest one-month increase since the tariff-driven spike of April 2025.
| Measure | Prior | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI headline, YoY (Feb to Mar) | 2.4% | 3.3% | +0.9pp |
| Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar to Apr) | 3.8% | 4.8% | +1.0pp |
| Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar to Apr) | 3.2% | 3.4% | +0.2pp |
| Core CPI, YoY (Feb to Mar) | 2.8% | 2.6% | -0.2pp |
So what: The 5-year expectations number at 3.4% is the one the Fed watches most closely. It sits well above the 2% target. Tuesday’s PPI release will show whether producer prices confirm what the CPI already told us.
3. Consumer Sentiment: A New Record Low
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 47.6 in the April preliminary reading. That is the lowest reading in the survey’s 74-year history, dating back to 1952. Below the Great Recession trough. Below the 2022 inflation peak.
| Period | Crisis Context | Michigan Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2020 | Pre-pandemic baseline | 99.8 |
| Nov 2008 | Great Recession | 55.3 |
| Jun 2022 | Inflation peak | 50.0 |
| Apr 2026 | Iran war + inflation | 47.6 |
The current conditions sub-index fell to 50.1, also a record low. The expectations sub-index hit 46.1, the weakest since 1980. Notably, 98% of interviews were conducted before the April 8 ceasefire; respondents cited the Iran conflict as the primary driver of pessimism.
So what: If $100 oil persists through the next survey period, the reading likely gets worse. A consumer economy running on 70% of GDP cannot ignore sentiment at historic lows forever, though the historical record of sentiment troughs is more nuanced than the headline suggests.
4. Bank Earnings: Wall Street Profits from Main Street’s Pain
Against that backdrop, the banks are printing money. Goldman Sachs reported Sunday morning: revenue of $17.23 billion (beating estimates by 1.5%), EPS of $17.55 (beating by 6.4%), and a record $5.33 billion in equities trading revenue, up 27% year over year. The volatility that is crushing household confidence is minting profits on trading desks.
Five more major banks report this week. Here is the scorecard heading into earnings:
| Bank | Report Date | Est. EPS | Est. Revenue | Expected YoY EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Apr 13 (reported) | Beat. Record equities. | ||
| JPMorgan | Tue, Apr 15 | $5.41 | $48.2-49.2B | +6-9% |
| Citigroup | Tue, Apr 15 | $2.65 | $23.5B | +35% |
| Wells Fargo | Tue, Apr 15 | $1.58 | $21.79B | +14% |
| Bank of America | Wed, Apr 16 | $1.01 | $29.96B | +12% |
| Morgan Stanley | Wed, Apr 16 | $3.01-3.08 | $19.7-19.9B | +16-18% |
Goldman Sachs figures are actuals. All others are Wall Street consensus estimates. Sources: Alphastreet bank earnings preview, Seeking Alpha, FinancialContent, Yahoo Finance.
So what: The tension at the center of this market is right here. Wall Street is profiting from the same churn that Main Street fears. Whether that can continue depends on whether consumer stress eventually hits loan books and deal pipelines.
5. S&P 500 YTD: Whipsawed by War, Inflation, and Policy
The S&P 500 closed Friday in the 6,809 to 6,817 range, roughly flat for the year after opening 2026 at 6,858. The weekly gain of about 3.6% was the best since November, but it was built entirely on ceasefire hope that no longer exists.
| Date | Event | S&P 500 (approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2 | Year open | 6,858 |
| Feb 28 | Iran strikes begin | ~6,750 |
| Mar 4 | Hormuz closed | ~6,620 |
| Mar 13 | 2026 low | ~6,532 |
| Apr 8 | Ceasefire rally begins | ~6,600 |
| Apr 10 | CPI: 3.3% | ~6,810 |
| Apr 11 | Friday close | ~6,809 |
| Apr 12 | Talks collapse, blockade | ? |
So what: The market gained back nearly everything it lost during the war selloff, only to face a fresh geopolitical shock over the weekend. Monday’s open will show whether bank earnings strength can hold the index up against the headwinds of $100 oil and collapsing consumer confidence.
The Week Ahead: What to Watch
Beyond bank earnings, the economic calendar is full. Existing home sales on Monday. The PPI on Tuesday alongside JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, and Johnson & Johnson earnings. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday. Thursday brings housing starts, jobless claims, the Philly Fed index, and Netflix earnings after the close.
The PPI will tell us whether producer prices confirm the CPI’s inflation signal. Bank earnings will tell us whether the financial sector is insulated from or exposed to the consumer downturn. And the Hormuz blockade will tell us whether $100 oil is a floor, not a ceiling.
Five charts. One week. A lot at stake.
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