BEA 2024 County GDP: 2,273 Up, 809 Down, 122-Point Spread
BEA's 2024 county data: real GDP rose in 2,273 counties, fell in 809, with a 122.9-point spread between best and worst. The local story differs.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its annual county-level data on Gross Domestic Product and personal income for 2024, and the headline aggregates hide most of the actual signal. The county-level breakdown shows that the experience underneath the national numbers was deeply uneven, with a gap between the best and worst county exceeding 120 percentage points in a single year.
According to the BEA’s release on Gross Domestic Product by County and Personal Income by County for 2024, real GDP rose in 2,273 counties, fell in 809 counties, and was unchanged in 24 counties. Personal income, in current dollars, rose in 2,768 counties, fell in 331, and was unchanged in 7. The breadth ratios are very different on those two measures. Roughly 73 percent of counties saw real output expand, but roughly 89 percent saw nominal personal income expand. Personal income, as the BEA defines it in its national income and product accounts, includes wages, transfer receipts, proprietors’ income and investment income, so it can grow even when local production does not.
The extremes are wider than they look
The percent change in real county GDP ranged from a 76.6 percent increase in Carter County, Montana to a 46.3 percent decline in Baca County, Colorado. That spread is 122.9 percentage points in a single calendar year. In our view, that magnitude is what makes county data worth reading at all. The same publication-cycle BEA report on first-quarter 2026 GDP put the national real growth rate at 2 percent, and the BEA’s headline national accounts release is the single number most coverage cites. A national 2 percent print is the average of an enormous distribution, and the distribution at the county level is not symmetric or smooth.
Personal income showed a similar pattern at smaller magnitudes. The percent change ranged from a 22.6 percent increase in Harding County, South Dakota to a 23.3 percent decline in Issaquena County, Mississippi. That is a 45.9 percentage point spread on a much narrower distribution than real GDP, which itself is informative. Personal income is bounded by the labor market and transfer programs in a way that local production is not, especially in counties where a single industry or single facility dominates the tax base.
Why the smallest counties produce the biggest swings
County-level GDP is a ratio. The smallest counties have the smallest denominators, which is why they produce the most extreme percentage changes when a single project, mine, pipeline, ranching cycle or commodity cycle moves the numerator. Carter County, Montana had a 2020 census population of 1,415. Baca County, Colorado had a 2020 census population of 3,506. Harding County, South Dakota had a 2020 census population of 1,311. These are extremely small bases. A single new commercial development, a closed processing facility, or a regional commodity-price swing can shift these counties by tens of percentage points without telling you anything generalizable about the national economy.
The same logic applies in reverse. The county that contributes the most dollars to U.S. GDP — Los Angeles County, California — also accounts for the largest single share of national personal income at $818.5 billion in 2024 according to the BEA release. The Census Bureau’s county population estimates for the same period show why: Los Angeles County alone has a population larger than 40 U.S. states, and dollar magnitudes scale accordingly. A ten-percent move in a county that size is national news. A ten-percent move in Carter County, Montana is one project.
What the county detail is good for
The series is not useful for tactical positioning. It lags by more than a year — the 2024 reference period is published in early 2026 — and it does not break out the industry composition at a granularity that supports sector-level conclusions in the press release itself. The detailed industry breakdowns are available through BEA’s Regional Economic Accounts data tables, but they are slow-moving and largely confirm what national-level employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and earnings data from the BEA’s national income series have already implied.
What county detail is useful for is two things. First, it is the cleanest available picture of how broad-based or narrow-based an economic expansion or contraction actually is. A national 2 percent real growth rate that is supported by 73 percent of counties is a different economy than a national 2 percent rate concentrated in a handful of metro counties. Second, it is the reference layer for any analysis that rolls up local data — pension funding, state tax projections, labor-market migration, and the BEA’s companion series on the arts and cultural economy and on foreign-firm employment of Americans all reference the same regional accounts framework.
The breadth question for 2024
The 2024 BEA county breadth — 2,273 of 3,106 counties with real GDP growth — works out to about 73 percent. That is consistent with continued expansion, but it is well short of the 89 percent breadth on personal income, and that gap is itself a data point. The 2024 county figures sit alongside the BEA’s advance estimate of fourth-quarter 2025 GDP, which came in at 1.4 percent, and the revised third estimate that pushed Q4 2025 lower. Breadth deterioration at the county level can show up before it shows up in national prints, and it tends to map to specific commodity or sector cycles rather than to general macro weakness.
| Measure | Counties up | Counties down | Counties unchanged | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP, 2024 | 2,273 | 809 | 24 | +76.6% (Carter, MT) to −46.3% (Baca, CO) |
| Personal income, 2024 (current dollars) | 2,768 | 331 | 7 | +22.6% (Harding, SD) to −23.3% (Issaquena, MS) |
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2026 county GDP and personal income release.
What this is not
The county series is not a leading indicator. It does not move ahead of national data; it is built up from many of the same source files. It is not granular enough at the county level to support direct sector or stock-level conclusions. It is not directly comparable across years for the smallest counties, where the denominator is so small that the percent change is dominated by a single facility or a single commodity cycle. And it does not say anything about asset prices.
For long-term household planning, the more useful framing is that aggregate national growth conceals very different local economies. Real wages in a county whose GDP shrank 5 percent buy a different basket of goods than real wages in a county whose GDP grew 8 percent, even when the national real growth rate is the same number that lands on the front page. Ferrante Capital’s earlier note on how inflation cuts retirement runway walked through the household side of the same divergence. The next county release, covering 2025, will land in early 2027.
The two questions worth holding for that release: does the share of counties with real GDP growth recover toward the 2023 pace, and does personal-income breadth (the 89 percent figure for 2024) hold above the real-GDP breadth (the 73 percent figure for 2024). Personal income running broader than real GDP is the pattern of an economy in which transfer receipts and wage income are propping up local aggregates while local production softens. That pattern is worth watching.
Forward-looking statements reflect Ferrante Capital’s current analysis and are subject to revision. Actual outcomes may differ materially. The data discussed here is from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2024 county-level release on real GDP and personal income, and is sourced as of the BEA’s most recent release date. Ferrante Capital is a Registered Investment Adviser (RIA). The content above is educational and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Please consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
